Economic Forecasts – who's right?

Last week economic forecasts were released from two different state agencies, the Colorado Legislative Council, and the Governor’s Office of State Planning and Budgeting. There is a wide disparity between the two reports — the Legislative Council is predicting a shortfall of $600 million, while the forecast from the Office of State Planning and Budgeting shows a shortfall of $70.2 million. The economists from both offices are planning to sit down and review the formulas used to derive this year’s estimates, and come up with figures that the Joint Budget Committee can use when they make adjustments to the state budget. Which prediction is correct? Decide for yourself — both forecasts are available online:

• Focus Colorado: Economic and Revenue Forecast, 2008-2012 , from the Legislative Council staff
• December 2008 Revenue Forecast , Office of State Planning and Budgeting